Vice President Kamala Harris is currently enjoying a narrow lead over her rival, former President Donald Trump, in a national presidential poll that was released on Tuesday, marking one of the first surveys conducted since US President Joe Biden officially announced that he would be stepping back from the race for reelection. This recent development has generated a significant amount of interest and speculation regarding the potential dynamics of the upcoming election.
According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris maintains a two-point advantage over Trump, with her support sitting at 44 percent compared to Trump’s 42 percent. The timing of this poll is noteworthy; it was conducted over the two days following Biden’s surprising announcement on Sunday that he would be exiting the race and endorsing his vice president, a decision that has undoubtedly shifted the focus of the political landscape.
In the poll from the previous week, the race between Harris, who is 59 years old, and Trump, who at 78 is now the oldest candidate in the presidential race, was much tighter, as both candidates were tied at a deadlock of 44 percent. Such numbers indicate the high stakes and competitive nature of this electoral contest.
Harris, who has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, is not only garnering endorsements but also securing significant financial contributions and pledged delegates that enhance her campaign’s prospects. However, another survey released on the same Tuesday indicates that she narrowly trails behind Trump in that particular poll, showcasing the fluctuating nature of voter sentiment as the race progresses.
It is important to note that both of these recent poll results are within the margins of error, which means that while they provide insight into the current political atmosphere, the numbers should be interpreted with caution. These new surveys have come on the heels of both the Republican National Convention, where Trump officially accepted the party’s presidential nomination, and the news of Biden’s exit from the race, which has reverberated throughout the political community.
Harris’s polling performance, which has been bolstered by a palpable excitement among Democratic voters concerning the recent shakeup within the race and the dynamics it brings, appears to indicate that she is successfully counteracting the typical post-nominating bounce that a nominee generally receives following their party’s convention. This development is particularly noteworthy for her campaign as it suggests that she is gaining traction and support during a crucial time.
In another poll conducted by PBS News/NPR/Marist on Monday, it was found that Trump slightly edges out Harris among US registered voters, with percentages showing a close race at 46 percent for Trump compared to 45 percent for Harris, leaving approximately nine percent of voters undecided. This shows that while Harris has made strides, the race remains very competitive.
When considering the inclusion of third-party candidates or independents in this contest, the results show a tie between Trump and Harris at 42 percent each, with other candidates lagging significantly behind. This outcome reinforces the notion that the race is indeed unpredictable and reflects the diverse opinions among the electorate.
Interestingly, the PBS News survey revealed that a substantial 87 percent of Americans believe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race was the right course of action. This sentiment spans across various political affiliations and age demographics, suggesting a wide consensus on the impact of his choice.
Additionally, a plurality of respondents, specifically 41 percent, indicated that they believe Biden’s departure actually increases the chances of Democrats winning in the upcoming November election. In contrast, 24 percent felt that his exit decreases the party’s chances, while a notable 34 percent expressed that they believe it will make no difference moving forward.
Compounding this political atmosphere is the recent shocking news that Trump survived an assassination attempt during a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, an event that has no doubt impacted public perception and the climate within which both candidates are now operating. Overall, despite the fluctuations in polling data, Trump maintains a narrow lead of approximately 1.6 percentage points over Harris when averaging the numbers from various polls, as compiled by RealClearPolitics, highlighting the intense and competitive nature of this forthcoming election.
